Causes of Unrest in Middle East and North Africa

Causes of Unrest in Middle East and North Africa Historians and philosophers, political scientists, economists, and sociologists are trying to identify the root causes of social unrest and their implications in the Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa in the end of the first and the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century. There are quite a lot of factors serving as the foundation for social unrest in the ME and NA. They are both objective and subjective. The bases of social revolutions are mainly domestic factors, though not without external assumptions. The root causes of the revolutionary upheavals in the Arab world and the Middle East and North African crisis lie in the limited model of modernization, which has led to a disproportionate, extensive and slow development of the region. [1] In January 2014, the Arab world has noted the fourth anniversary of the event, which journalists dubbed as the â€Å"Arab Spring â€Å". Indeed, at first, the world started to witness â€Å"iconic† events occur ring in the region, where the resignation of Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who ruled the country since 1987, on January 14 2011, launched the cascade known as the domino effect. Later, on the 11th of February 2011 the fall of Tunisian president was followed by the most sensational resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who ruled the country since 1981. In combination with the removal of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi (who ruled from 1969) on the 20th of October 2011, events of the â€Å"Arab Spring† began to be perceived and interpreted as signs of radical changes in the entire Arab region, and more broadly within the whole Islamic World [1] . The nomination of main slogans demanding the democratisation of public institutions of government had a dual effect on the countries of the region. Firstly, the â€Å"spring tide† having swept away a number of Middle Eastern regimes, still failed to overthrow the most powerful outposts of authoritarianism w ithin the region [2] . These authoritarian outposts are personified by Arab Monarchies of the Persian Gulf [3] , who happen to be traditional allies of the USA. Reluctance to initiate the reforms for the liberalisation of the regime led to them being discredited in the eyes of the global community as well as the indigenous peoples of the region. And secondly, the events of the last decade, beginning with the US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq [4] have led, in combination with crisis of power in Egypt and Syria, to the elimination of the political culture and institutions of the Middle East, by knocking out the traditional â€Å"heavyweights† of the Middle East: Iraq, Egypt and Syria. All of these events together resulted in the emergence of activity of those labelled as â€Å"outsiders† by the Arab world. These non-Arab â€Å"outsiders† are primarily Iran and Turkey. The failure of the revolutions to lay foundation for new Political, Economic and Social instit utions has been replaced by simple â€Å"reshuffling of spheres of power and influence. And in Iran, a â€Å"green movement† has been chosen as an alternative path [5] . Throughout the course of the revolution, there were strong expectations that the Middle East was entering a period of democratic development [6] , which was said to achieve all of the attributes of a free civil society, which had for so many years existed in Western countries. However, further advancement of the situation in the region has led to an increase in the influence of supporters of critical perception of the nature and probable consequences of this rebellious movement not only for countries of that region, but also for the whole system of modern international relations. Western experts have increasingly highlighted the ambiguity of this phenomenon for the fate of the entire region, by agreeing on the fundamental reshaping of the entire system of â€Å"balance of forces†. This choir is partic ularly dominated by the notable work of Efraim Inbar, an Israeli expert and his work â€Å"The Arab uprisings and national safety of Israel.†According to Inbar, all what is happening in the region, will not deliver any positive outcomes in terms of stability and regional security† [7] . Despite the secular influence of Western culture, none of the Arab States managed to build a stable, democratic society, based on the ideas of civil liberties, political rights, a system of universal education, gender equality and economic development. The â€Å"democratic† elections in Lebanon in 2005 and Palestine in 2009 brought to power of the Islamists, indicating that the imperfection of the civil society in the Arab world. The most dangerous version of the situation under the influence of the â€Å"Arab Spring† and according to Inbar, there will be an emergence of nuclear Iran, who may ultimately win some time to complete work on its nuclear program and put the globa l community fait accompli. This may result in a â€Å"chain reaction† when other countries region will aim to commence the development of their own nuclear programs, seriously complicating the national security of Israel, which as of now is the only nuclear Power in the conflict-laden region. Activation of Iran on the foreign policy arena after the uprisings is not accidental. Behind its activation lies the influx of huge amounts of Petrodollars, rising anti-American sentiment in the region caused by frankly failed policies of the United States, the rise to power of an ambitious and eccentric leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s implementation of its own â€Å"nuclear program†, which turned into a personification of Iran’s power revival [8] . Hence the interest of specialists and politicians on foreign policy doctrine of modern Iran, where it states that it is based not on the principles of national interest but rather the principle of Islamic solidarity, r ooted in the teachings of Imam Khomeini, in relation to the Islamic revolution. Thus, consideration of ideological concepts of Imam Khomeini in interpreting the current leader of the Islamic Revolution (Rahbar) Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, should help understanding and explaining the steps taken by Iran during the reign of the current President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad [9] . The analysis of these concepts will help to forecast future foreign policy initiatives of Iran with its aim to resolve the intra-regional problems.